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Analysts make often gloomy forecasts about short-term expected returns and economic conditions in the stock market. There are two big problems with these forecasts: they often make investors nervous, and they are usually wrong. Sources in this episode: - Do Financial Gurus Produce Reliable Forecasts? http://bit.ly/2sTOaQt - Inverted Yield Curves and Expected Stock Returns http://bit.ly/2RFFXrm - Equity Risk Premiums (ERP): Determinants, Estimation and Implications – The 2019 Edition https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3378246 - An Old Friend: The Stock Market's Shiller P/E https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/White-Papers/An-Old-Friend-The-Stock-Markets-Shiller-PE - Market Timing: Sin a Little https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Insights/White-Papers/Market-Timing-Sin-a-Little.pdf ------------------
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